Rivers in temperate ecoregions

– Case studies –

Hundreds, if not thousands, of recently published papers are dealing with the impact of Climate Change on freshwater ecosystems.

Here you find summaries of a few hundred papers, which we consider as most relevant.

Small

Abiotic indicators

Acidification / Evans, C. D., Reynolds, B., Hinton, C., Hughe ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Acidification

Reference

Evans, C. D., Reynolds, B., Hinton, C., Hughes, S., Norris, D., Grant, D., Williams, B. (2008): Effects of decreasing acid deposition and climate change on acid extremes in an upland stream. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Special Issue (Eurolimpacs) 12: 337-551.

Description

This study assesses the major chemical processes leading to acid extremes in a small, moorland stream in mid-Wales, UK, which has been monitored since 1979. Results suggest that base cation (mainly calcium) dilution, the ?seasalt effect?, and elevated nitrate pulses, are the major causes of seasonal/episodic minima in acid neutralising capacity (ANC), and that the relative importance of these drivers has remained approximately constant during 25 years of decreasing acid deposition and associated long-term chemical recovery. Many of the chemical variations causing short-term reductions in stream acidity, particularly base cation dilution and organic acid increases, are closely related to changes in water-flowpath and therefore to stream discharge. Changes in the observed pH-discharge relationship over time indicate that high-flow pH has increased more rapidly than meanflow pH, and therefore that episodes have decreased in magnitude since 1980. However a two-box application of the dynamic model MAGIC, whilst reproducing this trend, suggests that it will not persist in the long term, with mean ANC continuing to increase until 2100, but the ANC of the upper soil (the source of relatively acid water during high-flow episodes) stabilising close to zero beyond 2030. With climate change predicted to lead to an increase in maximum flows in the latter half of the century, high-flow related acid episodes may actually become more rather than less severe in the long term, although the model suggests that this effect may be small. Two other predicted climatic changes could also detrimentally impact on acid episodes: increased severity of winter "sea-salt" episodes due to higher wind speeds during winter storms; and larger sulphate pulses due to oxidation of reduced sulphur held in organic soils, during more extreme summer droughts. At the Gwy, the near-coastal location and relatively small extent of peat soils suggest that sea-salt episodes may have the greatest influence.

Acidification (oxidation, release wetlands) / Aherne, J., T. Larssen, P.J. Dillon & B.J ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Acidification (oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Aherne, J., T. Larssen, P.J. Dillon & B.J. Cosby (2004): Effects of climate events on environmental fluxes from forested catchments in Ontario, Canada: Modelling drought-induced redox processes. Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus 4: 37-48.

Description

Model reproduced successfully observed trends in sulphate retention. Including wetlands. Variation in precipitation. Drought periods: Oxidation of stored sulphur in wetlands, subsequent efflux into streams/lakes. (Generation of wetland compartment with incorporated redox processes included in MAGIC model.)

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Wright, R.F., C. Beier & B.J. Cosby (1998 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Wright, R.F., C. Beier & B.J. Cosby (1998): Effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on nitrogen runoff at Norwegian boreal forest catchments: the MERLIN model applied to Risdalsheia (RAIN and CLIMEX projects). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2(4): 399-414.

Description

Water temperature increased due to warming. Increase of N flux in runoff. Increased decomposition of soil organic matter due to warming. Increase eutrophying substances.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Wright, R.F. (1998): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Wright, R.F. (1998): Effect of increased carbon dioxide and temperature on runoff chemistry at a forested catchment in southern Norway (CLIMEX Project). Ecosystems 1: 216-225.

Description

Increased CO₂. Mineralisation increasing due to warming. Increased decomposition of soil organic matter due to warming. Increase of N flux in runoff.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / van Breemen, N., A. Jenkins, R.F. Wright, D.J ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

van Breemen, N., A. Jenkins, R.F. Wright, D.J. Beerling, W.J. Arp, F. Berendse, C. Beier, R. Collins, D. van Dam, L. Rasmussen, P.S.J. Verburg & M.A. Wills (1998): Impacts of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on a boreal forest ecosystem (CLIMEX Project). Ecosystems 1: 345-351.

Description

Prolonged growing season. Mineralisation increasing due to warming. Increased decomposition of soil organic matter due to warming. Increase of N flux in runoff. CLIMEX, MAGIC 7, NITREX, RAIN projects.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Mitchell, M.J., C.T. Driscoll, J.S. Kahl, G.E ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Mitchell, M.J., C.T. Driscoll, J.S. Kahl, G.E. Likens, P.S. Murdoch & L.H. Pardo (1996): Climatic control of nitrate loss from forested watersheds in the northeast United States. Environmental Science and Technology 30: 2609-2612.

Description

Anomalously cold winters. High nitrate concentrations and high drainage water losses during snowmelt (thereafter decreasing again).

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Monteith, D.T., C.D. Evans & B. Reynolds ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Monteith, D.T., C.D. Evans & B. Reynolds (2000): Are temporal variations in the nitrate content of UK upland freshwaters linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation? Hydrological Processes 14: 1745-1749.

Description

Strong negative correlation of winter NAO-index and mean winter temperature with variations in NO₃ concentrations. Possibly linked to the length of time the soil profile remains frozen.

NO&sub3;-flux / Rogora, M., Mosello, R. (2007): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	NO&sub3;-flux

Reference

Rogora, M., Mosello, R. (2007): Climate as a confounding factor in the response of surface water to nitrogen deposition in an area South of the Alps. Applied Geochemistry 22: 1122-1128.

Description

Climate effects on NO₃ concentrations have been investigated for two small rivers South of the Alps draining forested catchments. River Pellino and Cannobino are representative of different stages of N saturation determined by high deposition of inorganic N (2.0-2.5 g N m^-2y^-1). Long-term records of air temperature, precipitation, N deposition and stream NO₃ concentration were used to assess the relative effect of N deposition and climate on NO₃ export from the catchments. The climate signal was more evident in the river with the lower NO₃ concentration. Prolonged dry and warm periods were the precondition for the occurrence of the highest peaks of NO₂ concentration.

NO₃ -flux / Rogora, M., Mosello, R. (2007): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	NO₃ -flux

Reference

Rogora, M., Mosello, R. (2007): Climate as a confounding factor in the response of surface water to nitrogen deposition in an area South of the Alps. Applied Geochemistry 22: 1122-1128. (Euro-limpacs paper)

Description

Early warning indicators

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed / Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed

Reference

Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology. 183: 397-424.

Description

Model (for 2050). Runoff volume: Depending on scenario: slightly increasing or significantly decreasing; sensitivity greater in drier southern and eastern England. Concentration of runoff in winter; reduced low flows, prodominantly in summer.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Bradley, D.C. & S.J. Ormerod (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Bradley, D.C. & S.J. Ormerod (2001): Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 987-996.

Description

Positive NAO-index years: Runoff volume 15 to 18% increase. Negative NAO-index associated with high persistence of invertebrate community. Risk of confounding or obscuring effects of climatic change through NAO emphasized.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Arnell, N.W. (1992): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Arnell, N.W. (1992): Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment. Journal of Hydrology 132: 321-342.

Description

Model, runoff volume and dynamics: Response depending on catchment characteristics and timing of rainfall.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, seasonality changed / Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, seasonality changed

Reference

Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. Spreafico (1994): Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (Switzerland). Climatic Change 28: 339-363.

Description

Reduction in snow cover duration. Floods due to snow melting lower. Additional floods caused by rainfall in winter season. Lower part of catchment most sensitive, higher parts also effected in case of larger climate changes.

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Mitchell, M.J., C.T. Driscoll, J.S. Kahl, G.E ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Description

Anomalously cold winters. High nitrate concentrations and high drainage water losses during snowmelt (thereafter decreasing again).

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): Indicators of climate warming in Minnesota: Lake ice covers and snowmelt runoff. Climatic Change 75(4): 421-453.

Description

Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002 the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred -0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff -0.23 days/year earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by 0.11 °/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature. In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records.

Primary production

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. Fausch, S.W. Hostetler, G.H. Leavesley, P.R. Leavitt, D.M. Macknight & J.A. Stanford (1997): Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada. Hydrological Processes 11: 903-924.

Description

Changed runoff dynamics. Changes in stream temperature regime. Changed riparian vegetation. Changed benthic community composition. Changed riparian vegetation. Stenothermic species could be extirpated. Cold water stream fish may be isolated in increasingly confined headwaters.

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & L.B.M. Vought (1999): Effects of leaf-litter accumulation on riparian plant diversity across Europe. Ecology 80(5): 1770-1775.

Description

Plant biomass decreased with increasing litter mass but did not vary with site-dependent variables such as climate and soil. Species density for various plant life traits varied with litter mass, summer temperature, and summer precipitation. Litter mass was the most important variable for all life traits except rhizomatous and stoloniferous species, which were most dependent upon summer precipitation. These findings are useful for the prediction of responses in riparian vegetation following future climatic changes.

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Macrophytes, dragonflies, stoneflies, aquatic beetles and fishes: Species richness in most groups decreased with increasing latitude and altitude, and a considerable part of the variation was explained by mean July temperature. Stoneflies showed a reversed pattern, with species richness correlating positively, albeit more weakly, with mean provincial altitude. Such temperature-controlled patterns suggest that regional freshwater biodiversity will strongly respond to climate change, with repercussions for local community organization in freshwater ecosystems in Fennoscandia.

Neophytes / Truscott, A.M., S.C.F. Palmer, C. Soulsby &am ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Neophytes

Reference

Truscott, A.M., S.C.F. Palmer, C. Soulsby & P.E. Hulme (2006): The dispersal characteristics of the invasive plant Mimulus guttatus and the ecological significance of increased occurrence of high-flow events. Journal of Ecology 94(6): 1080-1091.

Description

Mimulus guttatus: The dual strategy of dispersal by vegetative fragments and seeds, together with the opportunity of dispersing the two types of propagules during different periods of the year, facilitates local dominance by M. guttatus as well as long-distance colonization. As a result, the rate of spread of M. guttatus into inundation communities along rivers is likely to increase with more frequent high-flow events, especially if these coincide with the growing season. Thus, predicting the response of riparian invasive species to environmental change requires not only an understanding of the role of climate in plant demography but also the impact of changes in hydrology on rates of spread.

Productivty, decomposition / Buzby, K.M. ∓ S.A. Perry (2000): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Productivty, decomposition

Reference

Buzby, K.M. ∓ S.A. Perry (2000): Modeling the potential effects of climate change on leaf pack processing in central Appalachian streams. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 57(9): 1773-1783.

Description

Computer simulation model. Both invertebrates and microbes processed more leaf material under the elevated temperature scenarios; however, the invertebrate response was greater than the microbial response. In the model, microbial processing is represented as a linear function of temperature; a nonlinear response might produce different results. Invertebrates processed a greater percentage of the inputs in wet than in dry years, while microbial processing rates were unaffected. A 20-year flood event occurring in November, January, or March caused more than 50% of the leaf inputs to be exported, leaving little detrital material available for invertebrate consumption. The timing of the flood event made little difference to the simulation results. All climate change scenarios resulted in decreases, sometimes substantial, in coarse particulate organic matter availability to shredders during the summer months.

Secondary production - fish

Assemblage structure / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Assemblage structure / Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): Functional-organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76(2): 606-627.

Description

The strong hydrological-assemblage relations found in the 34 midwestern sites suggest that hydrological factors are significant environmental variables influencing fish assemblage structure, and that hydrological alterations induced by climate change (or other anthropogenic disturbances) could modify stream fish assemblage structure in this region.

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Description

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Schindler, D.W. (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Schindler, D.W. (2001): The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwaters in the new millennium. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 18-29.

Description

Changing flows due to changing temperatures and precipitation. Changing aquatic community, life cycles. Warming trend: Habitats for cold-stenotherms decline.

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change / Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): Effects of climate warming on fish habitat in streams of the United States. Limnology and Oceanography 41(5): 1109-1115.

Description

Water temperature increase: Habitats for cold and cool water fish reduced by approx. 50%. Examples: Oncorhynchus mykiss, Catastomus commersoni.

Distribution range, habitat change / Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & J.F. Kitchell (1992): Global change and freshwater ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 119-139.

Description

Water temperature increase. Higher variability in runoff. Channel widening by high magnitude floods, debris torrents with effect on habitats, aquatic species in general. Examples: Trout, charr, salmon: altered stream habitat, changed geographical distribution due to changed thermal limits.

Distribution range, habitat change / Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Bu ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Burkhardt-Holm & H. Güttinger (2006): Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout populations in Alpine rivers and streams. Global Change Biology 12(1): 10-26.

Description

For brown trout populations, the warming resulted in an upward shift in thermal habitat that was accelerated by an increase in the incidence of temperature-dependent Proliferative Kidney Disease at the habitat's lower boundary. Because physical barriers restrict longitudinal migration in mountain regions, an upward habitat shift in effect implies habitat reduction, suggesting the likelihood of an overall population decrease. Extensive brown trout catch data documenting an altitudinally dependent decline indicate that such a climate-related population decrease has in fact occurred. Our analysis employs a quantitatively defined reference optimum temperature range for brown trout, based on the sinusoidal regression of seasonally varying field data.

Distribution range, habitat change, life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing / Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins & R. Dudl ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change, life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing

Reference

Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins & R. Dudley (2003): Historical Trend in River Ice Thickness and Coherence in Hydroclimatological Trends in Maine. Climatic Change 61: 217-236.

Description

Water temperature increased over the period 1966 through 2001. Earlier snowmelt, return of the adult salmon and alewives advanced over the period 1986 to 2001, also effected the timing of migration, spawning.

Distribution range, habitat change, productivity, density, species richness, survival / Ries, R.D. & S.A. Perry (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change, productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Ries, R.D. & S.A. Perry (1995): Potential effects of global climate warming on brook trout growth and prey consumption in central Appalachian streams, USA. Climate Research 5(3): 197-206.

Description

Brook trout populations could either benefit from increased growth rates in spring and fall, or suffer from shrinking habitat and reduced growth rates in summer, depending on the magnitude of temperature change and on food availability. A stream temperature increase of 2 °C or less could very likely increase brook trout growth, but the effect of larger temperature increases is less predictable due to greater dependence on higher prey production. A 15 to 20% increase in food consumption would be required to maintain present rates of growth with an increase of 2 °C, and 30 to 40% more food would be required with an increase of 4°C.

Life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing / Elliott, J.M., M.A. Hurley & S.C. Maberly (20 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing

Reference

Elliott, J.M., M.A. Hurley & S.C. Maberly (2000): The emergence period of sea trout fry in a Lake District stream correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Fish Biology 56: 208-210.

Description

Winter water temperature NAO-dependent (Dec-Mar). Salmo trutta: Fry-emergence date and winter NAOi and water temperature correlated.

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct

Reference

Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A.P. Covich, C. Dahm, J. Gibert, W. Goedkoop, K. Martens & J. Verhoeven (2000): Global Change and the Biodiversity of Freshwater Ecosystems: Impacts on Linkages between Above-Sediment and Sediment Biota. BioScience 50(12): 1099-1106.

Description

Change in water temperature, flow regime, increasing sedimentation, change in water body morphology. Extinction of native species, habitat availability reduced, decreased diversity and abundance of benthic invertebrates (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera). Change of invertebrate communities to anoxiatolerant species.

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease / Xenopoulos, M.A., D.M. Lodge, J. Alcamo, M. M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A., D.M. Lodge, J. Alcamo, M. Märker, K. Schulze & D.P. Van Vuuren (2005): Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal. Global Change Biology 11(10): 1557-1564.

Description

Modelled river discharge (HadCM3): Fish richness loss, anthropogenic influences: channelization, industrial pollution, water withdrawals, increase in discharge 65-70% in both scenarios, regionally variable. Species change, fish stress factor increase, fish infections increase, fish extinction, invasive species, toxic algal blooms increase.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & S.P. Sowa (2006): Riparian shading and groundwater enhance growth potential for smallmouth bass in Ozark streams. Ecological Applications 16(4): 1461-1473.

Description

Smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu: Potential for increasing shade through riparian restoration is greatest for streams < 5 m wide and along north-south reaches of larger streams. However, temperature models also indicated that restoring riparian shading to maximum levels throughout a watershed would increase the total stream mileage capable of supporting positive growth of adult smallmouth bass by only 1-6% when air temperatures are at or near average summer maxima; increases in suitable thermal habitat would be greatest in watersheds with higher spring densities.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Description

Reductions of 20-90% in discharge would result in losses of 2-38% of the fish species in two biogeographical regions in the United States (Lower Ohio-Upper Mississippi and Southeastern). Additional data on the occurrence of specific species relative to specific discharge regimes suggests that fishes found exclusively in high discharge environments (e.g., Shovelnose sturgeon) would be most vulnerable to reductions in discharge.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease, distribution range, habitat change / Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Bu ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease, distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Burkhardt-Holm & H. Güttinger (2005): Consequences of climate change for water temperature and brown trout populations in Alpine river and streams. Global Change Biology 11: 1-17

Description

Water temperature increase: brown trout upward migration, incidence of Proliferative Kidney Disease increased, populations decrease (catch declined by 66,4%).

Secondary production - invertebrates

Community change: anoxiatolerant species / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: anoxiatolerant species

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Bradley, D.C. & S.J. Ormerod (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Bradley, D.C. & S.J. Ormerod (2001): Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Animal Ecology 70: 987-996.

Description

Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Boulton, A.J. (2003): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Boulton, A.J. (2003): Parallels and contrasts in the effects of drought on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Freshwater Biology 48(7): 1173-1185.

Description

Australia: drought conditions eliminated or decimated several groups of macroinvertebrates, including atyid shrimps, stoneflies and free-living caddisflies. These taxa persisted during the early stages of the drought but did not recruit successfully the following year, despite a return to higher-than-baseflow conditions: lag effect. Shifts in taxa richness, abundance and trophic organisation. England: Effects of summer drought were buffered by sustained groundwater discharge from the previous winter. Reduction of available riverine habitats, especially via siltation, but few taxa were eliminated: Rapid recolonisation from perennial sections of the chalk streams. However, recruitment by taxa that lack desiccation-resistant stages or have limited mobility is delayed.

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Hawkins, C.P., J.N. Hogue, L.M. Decker & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Hawkins, C.P., J.N. Hogue, L.M. Decker & J.W. Feminella (1997): Channel morphology, water temperature, and assemblage structure of stream insects. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 16(4): 728-749.

Description

Variation in assemblage structure among streams was significantly related to temperature. Temperature probably influenced assemblage structure in two ways: 1) by influencing developmental rates of individual taxa and overall assemblage phenology, thus affecting the relative abundances of taxa found on a specific sampling date, and 2) by excluding taxa unable to tolerate certain temperature ranges. (Strong dependency of assemblage structure on temperature and the lack of strong geographic trends in temperature among these streams, much of the measured variation in assemblage structure appeared to be unrelated to latitude or elevation.)

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Life history characteristics change / Baron, J.S. (1997): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Baron, J.S. (1997): Effects of climate change on in-stream biology and freshwater ecosystems. Briefing document for Great Plains climate change workshop 5/97

Description

Water temperature increased i.e. caddiesflies growth rates change, shortened life cycles. Habitat loss, population fragmentation.

Life history characteristics change / Harper, M.P. & B.L. Peckarsky (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Harper, M.P. & B.L. Peckarsky (2006): Emergence cues of a mayfly in a high-altitude stream ecosystem: Potential response to climate change. Ecological Applications 16(2): 612-621.

Description

Mayflies (Baetis bicaudatus) emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. Nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. We speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.

Life history characteristics change / Briers, R.A., Gee, J.H.R. & R. Geoghegan ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Briers, R.A., Gee, J.H.R. & R. Geoghegan (2004): Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insects. Ecography 27: 811-817.

Description

long-term empirical data on the sizes of mayfly and stonefly nymphs and on water temperature data. Models of egg development and nymphal growth in relation to temperature were used to predict the effect of the NAO on phenology. The observed mean size and the simulated developmental period of mayfly nymphs were significantly related to the winter NAO index, with nymphs growing faster in positive phases of the NAO (warmer stream t), but the growth of stonefly nymphs was not related to the NAO. This may have been due to the semivoltine stonefly lifecycle, but stonefly nymph growth is also generally less dependent on temperature. There were significant differences in growth rates of both species between streams, with nymphs growing more slowly in the forested stream that was consistently cooler than the open stream. Predicted emergence dates for adult mayflies varied by nearly two months between years, depending on the phase of the NAO. Variation in growth and phenology of stream insects associated with the NAO may influence temporal fluctuations in the composition and dynamics of stream communities.

Susceptibility ecosystem

Catchment size, other characteristics / Arnell, N.W. (1992): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Catchment size, other characteristics

Reference

Arnell, N.W. (1992): Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment. Journal of Hydrology 132: 321-342.

Description

Model, runoff volume and dynamics: Response depending on catchment characteristics and timing of rainfall.

Catchment size, other characteristics / Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Catchment size, other characteristics

Reference

Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. Spreafico (1994): Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (Switzerland). Climatic Change 28: 339-363.

Description

Geography / Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geography

Reference

Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology. 183: 397-424.

Description

Land use / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	small
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Description

Rivers in general

Abiotic incidators

Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention) / Futter, M.N., de Wit, H.A. (2007): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention)

Reference

Futter, M.N., de Wit, H.A. (2007): What controls dissolved organic carbon concentrations in streams: a comparison of modelling approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 4: 3175-3207.

Description

Dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) in surface waters are increasing in many regions of Europe and North America. These increases are likely driven by a combination of changing climate, recovery from acidification and change in severity of winter storms in coastal areas. INCA-C, a process-based model of climate effects on surface water [DOC], was used to explore the mechanisms by which changing climate controls seasonal to inter-annual patterns of [DOC] in the lake and outflow stream of a small Finnish catchment between 1990 and 2003. Both production in the catchment and mineralization in the lake controlled [DOC] in the lake. Concentrations in the catchment outflow were controlled by rates of DOC production in the surrounding organic soils. The INCA-C simulation results were compared to those obtained using artificial neural networks (ANN). In general, ?black box? ANN models provide better fits to observed data but process-based models can identify the mechanism responsible for the observed pattern. A statistically significant increase was observed in both INCA-C modelled and measured annual average [DOC] in the lake. This suggests that some of the observed increase in surface water [DOC] is caused by climate-related processes operating in the lake and catchment. However, a full understanding of surface water [DOC] dynamics can only come from catchment-scale process-based models linking the effects of changing climate and deposition on aquatic and terrestrial environments.

Model: DOC (release/retention) / Futter, M.N., Starr, M., Forsius, M., Holmber ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	Model: DOC (release/retention)

Reference

Futter, M.N., Starr, M., Forsius, M., Holmberg, M. (2008): Modelling the effects of climate on long-term patterns of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the surface waters of a boreal catchment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Special Issue (Eurolimpacs) 12: 437-447.

Description

Dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) in surface waters are increasing in many regions of Europe and North America. These increases are likely driven by a combination of changing climate, recovery from acidification and change in severity of winter storms in coastal areas. INCA-C, a process-based model of climate effects on surface water [DOC], was used to explore the mechanisms by which changing climate controls seasonal to inter-annual patterns of [DOC] in the lake and outflow stream of a small Finnish catchment between 1990 and 2003. Both production in the catchment and mineralization in the lake controlled [DOC] in the lake. Concentrations in the catchment outflow were controlled by rates of DOC production in the surrounding organic soils. The INCA-C simulation results were compared to those obtained using artificial neural networks (ANN). In general, "black box" ANN models provide better fits to observed data but process-based models can identify the mechanism responsible for the observed pattern. A statistically significant increase was observed in both INCA-C modelled and measured annual average [DOC] in the lake. This suggests that some of the observed increase in surface water [DOC] is caused by climate-related processes operating in the lake and catchment. However, a full understanding of surface water [DOC] dynamics can only come from catchment-scale process-based models linking the effects of changing climate and deposition on aquatic and terrestrial environments.

Model: N-flux / Wright, R.F., Kaste, Ø., de Wit, H.A., ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	Model: N-flux

Reference

Wright, R.F., Kaste, Ø., de Wit, H.A., Tjomsland, T., Bloemerts, M., Molvær, J., Selvik, J. (2008): Effect of Climate Change on Fluxes of Nitrogen from the Tovdal River Basin, Norway, to Adjoining Marine Areas. Ambio 37(1): 64-71.

Description

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO₃) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO₃ flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4°C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO₃ flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO₃ delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.

N-/C-flux / Austnes, K., Kaste, Ø., Vestgarden, L. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-/C-flux

Reference

Austnes, K., Kaste, Ø., Vestgarden, L. S., Mulder, J.(2008): Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: Effects on leaching of total organic carbon and total organic nitrogen. Ambio 37(1): 38-47.

Description

Projected increases in winter temperature due to future climate change may cause decreased snow accumulation at lower and intermediate altitudes in northern temperate regions. The resulting changes in soil temperature and water regime may affect the leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON). We manipulated the snow cover of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to quantify its effect on concentrations and fluxes of TOC and TON in runoff. Manipulations included snow removal, to promote soil frost, and insulation, to prevent soil frost. Snow removal resulted in increased TOC and TON concentrations, but decreased fluxes. Insulation caused a slight decrease in concentrations and fluxes of TOC. Our experiments show that a change in snow depth, and thus soil temperature, is not likely to have serious effects on TOC and TON leaching in the montane heathland area studied.

N-/C-flux / Haaland, S., Austnes, K., Kaste, Ø., M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-/C-flux

Reference

Haaland, S., Austnes, K., Kaste, Ø., Mulder, J., Riise, G., Vestgarden, L. S., Stuanes, A. O. (2008): Manipulation of precipitation in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: Effects on leaching of organic carbon and nitrogen species. Ambio 37(1): 48-55.

Description

Projected changes in climate in Southern Norway include increases in summer and autumn precipitation. This may affect leaching of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from soils. Effects of experimentally added extra precipitation (10 mm week−1) during the growing season of 3 years (2004-2006) to small headwater catchments at Storgama (59°0′N, 550-600 m a.s.l.) on leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) were assessed. Extra precipitation did not have a significant effect on average TOC and TON concentrations in runoff. Thus, fluxes of TOC and TON increased nearly proportionally with water fluxes. This suggests that a store of adsorbed and potentially mobile TOC and TON in catchment soils buffers the concentration of DOM in runoff. The size and dynamics of the pool of TOC and TON depends on the balance between production and leaching rates. Infrequent short droughts had only small effects on TOC and TON fluxes in runoff from the reference catchments.

N-flux / Kaste, Ø., Austnes, K., Vestgarden, L. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-flux

Reference

Kaste, Ø., Austnes, K., Vestgarden, L.S., Wright, R.F. (2008): Manipulation of Snow in Small Headwater Catchments at Storgama, Norway: Effects on Leaching of Inorganic Nitrogen. Ambio 37(1): 29-37.

Description

We have manipulated the winter-time soil temperature regime of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to study the possible effects on concentrations and fluxes of inorganic nitrogen in runoff. The experiments included extra insulation of soils in two catchments to prevent subzero temperatures during winter, and removal of snow in two other catchments to promote soil frost. Increased soil temperatures during winter increased the springtime concentrations and fluxes of ammonium (NH₄) and nitrate (NO₃) in runoff. By contrast, snow removal with development of significant soil frost showed no systematic effects on mean concentrations or fluxes of inorganic N. The results from our experiments suggest that warmer soils during winter caused by exceptionally mild winters, or alternatively a heavy snowpack, imply a greater risk for inorganic N leaching in this region than a possible increase of soil frost events because of reduced snow cover.

N-flux, wet deposition / Hole, L. R., de Wit, H. A., Aas, W. (2008): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-flux, wet deposition

Reference

Hole, L. R., de Wit, H. A., Aas, W. (2008): Influence of summer and winter climate variability on nitrogen wet deposition in Norway. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Special Issue (Eurolimpacs).

Description

Dominating wind patterns around Norway may change due to climate warming. This could affect transport of polluted air masses and precipitation. Here, we study relations between reactive nitrogen wet deposition and air mass transport during summer and winter expressed in the form of climate indices, at seven sites in Southern Norway for the period 1980-2005. Atmospheric nitrate concentrations decreased with 0 to 50% in the period, particularly at sites with little precipitation, and mostly during 1990-2005. For comparison, reported reductions in emissions of oxidised nitrogen in Europe in 1989-2003 were 23%. Climate indices explained up to 36% of the variation in winter nitrate deposition at the western and northern sites and also explained 60% of the variation in winter precipitation (R=0.77). This suggests that the variation in nitrate wet deposition is closely related to variation in precipitation, and that the climate indices seem to also partly control the variation in atmospheric nitrate concentrations (R=−0.45 at coastal sites). At the coastal sites, local air temperature was highly correlated (R=0.84) with winter nitrate deposition, suggesting that warm, humid winter weather results in increased wet nitrate deposition. For ammonia the pattern was similar, but this compound is more influenced by local sources. Expected severe increase in precipitation in western and northern regions as a consequence of climate change suggest that nitrogen deposition in these areas will increase under global warming if emissions are held constant.

Abiotic indicators

Acidification / Laudon, H., Dillon, P.J., Eimers, M.C., Semki ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Acidification

Reference

Laudon, H., Dillon, P.J., Eimers, M.C., Semkin, R.G., Jeffries, D.S.(2004): Climate induced episodic acidification of streams in central Ontario. Environmental Science & Technology 38: 6009-6015.

Description

In this study we have analyzed the hydrochemical effect of drought conditions during 311 hydrological episodes in nine headwater streams in central Ontario over the past 20 years. Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC) was logarithmically correlated (p<0.05) to antecedent discharge in eight of the nine streams, with the largest decline in ANC occurring after low antecedent flow. In eight of the nine streams SO₄^-2 was the most important driving mechanism of ANC decline, but dilution as well as organic acidity was important in several streams. No decrease in the SO₄^-2 driven ANC decline was observed over the 20 year study period despite a ∼40% reduction in SO₄^-2 deposition. The strong correlation between ANC decline and low antecedent discharge demonstrates that episodic acidification during rain events is strongly associated with preceding drought conditions, especially in wetland-dominated catchments. The results have important implications for recovery from acidification, especially in northern ecosystems where climate scenarios forecast that warmer and drier conditions will be more common.

Acidification / Wright, R.F., Aherne, J., Bishop, K., Camarer ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Acidification

Reference

Wright, R.F., Aherne, J., Bishop, K., Camarero, L., Cosby, B.J., Erlandsson, M., Evans, C.D., Forsius, M., Hardekopf, D.W., Helliwell, R., Hruska, J., Jenkins, A., Kopaček, J., Moldan, F., Posch, M., Rogora, M. (2006): Modelling the effect of climate change on recovery of acidified freshwaters: Relative sensitivity of individual processes in the MAGIC model. Science of the Total Environment, Euro-limpacs Special Issue 365: 154-166.

Description

The MAGIC model was used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of several possible climate-induced effects on the recovery of soil and surface water from acidification. A common protocol was used at 14 intensively studied sites in Europe and eastern North America. The results show that several of the factors are of only minor importance (increase in pCO₂ in soil air and runoff, for example), several are important at only a few sites (seasalts at near-coastal sites, for example) and several are important at nearly all sites (increased concentrations of organic acids in soil solution and runoff, for example). In addition changes in forest growth and decomposition of soil organic matter are important at forested sites and sites at risk of nitrogen saturation. The trials suggest that in future modelling of recovery from acidification should take into account possible concurrent climate changes and focus specially on the climate-induced changes in organic acids and nitrogen retention.

Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention) / Evans, C.D., Freeman, C., Cork, L., Thomas, D ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention)

Reference

Evans, C.D., Freeman, C., Cork, L., Thomas, D.N., Reynolds, B., Billett, M.F., Garnett, M.H., Norris, D. (2007): Evidence against recent climate-induced destabilisation of soil carbon from 14C analysis of riverine dissolved organic matter. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 39569. (Euro-limpacs papers)

Description

The stability of global soil carbon (C) represents a major uncertainty in forecasting future climate change. In the UK, substantial soil C losses have been reported, while at the same time dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in upland waters have increased, suggesting that soil C stocks may be destabilising in response to climate change. To investigate the link between soil carbon and DOC at a range of sites, soil organic matter, soilwater and streamwater DOC were analysed for radiocarbon (14C). DOC exported from C-rich landscapes appears younger than the soil C itself, much of it comprising C assimilated post-1950s. DOC from more intensively managed, C-poor soils is older, in some cases >100 years. Results appear consistent with soil C destabilisation in farmed landscapes, but not in peatlands. Reported C losses may to a significant extent be explained by mechanisms other than climate change, e.g. recovery from acidification in peatlands, and agricultural intensification in managed systems.

Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention) / Evans, C.D., Freeman, C., Cork, L., Thomas, D ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Carbon cycling change (DOC release/retention)

Reference

Description

Drought-induced metal peaks, release to wetlands and rivers / Adkinson, A., Watmough, S.A., Dillon, P.J. (2 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Drought-induced metal peaks, release to wetlands and rivers

Reference

Adkinson, A., Watmough, S.A., Dillon, P.J. (2008): Drought-induced metal release from a wetland at Plastic Lake, central Ontario. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 65(5): 834-845.

Description

With climate change, droughts may become more frequent in southern Ontario, which could release metals from peat and degrade downstream water quality. Monthly volume-weighted metal (Al, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) concentrations and fluxes in streams and bulk deposition at Plastic Lake were monitored over 20 months in 2002-2003, during which there was a summer drought. Monthly concentrations in the outflow from the wetland (PC1) were variable, with very high concentrations following the drought. With the exception of Pb, statistically significant models of metal concentrations with SO₄^-2 and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were developed, and these relationships were used to estimate monthly metal exports between 1980 and 2000. Model predictions for Cd and Zn in PC1 agreed well (p < 0.001) with concentrations measured between 1989 and 1991. Model predictions suggesting peaks in metal concentrations are common in years with pronounced summer droughts. In contrast to ombrotrophic bogs, the PC1 wetland receives the majority of its metal input from the terrestrial catchment, and mass balance approximations indicate no substantial depletion of metal reserves in peat. Drought-induced metal peaks may persist for many decades, potentially contributing to the delayed recovery of surface waters at Plastic Lake, despite declining S deposition.

Early warning indicators

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Kaste, Ø., Wright, R.F., Barkved, L. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Kaste, Ø., Wright, R.F., Barkved, L. J., Bjerkeng, B., Engen-Skaugen, T., Magnusson, J., Sælthun, N. R.(2006): Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system. Science of the Total Environment 365: 200-222.

Description

Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685 km²) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1°C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3°C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO3−) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic algae and macrophytes along the river channels and lead to undesirable eutrophication effects in the estuarine area. Simulations made by the FJORD model and the HAD scenario indicate that primary production in the estuary might increase up to 15-20%, based on the climate-induced changes in river flow and nitrate concentrations alone.

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): Indicators of climate warming in Minnesota: Lake ice covers and snowmelt runoff. Climatic Change 75(4): 421-453.

Description

Primary production

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Description

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & L.B.M. Vought (1999): Effects of leaf-litter accumulation on riparian plant diversity across Europe. Ecology 80(5): 1770-1775.

Description

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Primack, A.G.B. (2000): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Primack, A.G.B. (2000): Simulation of climate-change effects on riparian vegetation in the Pere Marquette River. Michigan. Wetlands 20(3): 538-547.

Description

Four vegetation classes were identified at the field site (Alnus, Open-Viburnum, Fraxinus-Carpinus, and Acer-Tsuga). The areal extent of vegetation classes at the field site may change by up to 27%.

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Leaf litter quality / Adams, J.A., N.C. Tuchman & P.A. Moore (2 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Leaf litter quality

Reference

Adams, J.A., N.C. Tuchman & P.A. Moore (2003): Atmospheric CO₂ enrichment alters leaf detritus: impacts on foraging decisions of crayfish (Orconectes virilis). Journal of the North American Benthological Society 22(3): 410-422.

Description

Many tree species demonstrate altered folia chemical composition when grown under elevated CO₂ conditions, decreasing the nutritional quality of leaves for herbivores and detritivores. Changes in the chemistry of leaf detritus may affect the food-selection behavior of organisms, such as crayfish, that feed on it. Crayfish can discriminate chemically between AMB (leaf litter from current CO₂ concentration) and ELEV (leaf litter from twice the current concentration) detritus, that AMB detritus is preferred, and that crayfish are attracted by chemicals diffusing from the detritus. (Detritus from trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides)).

Neophytes / Truscott, A.M., S.C.F. Palmer, C. Soulsby &am ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Neophytes

Reference

Description

Secondary production - fish

Assemblage structure / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Assemblage structure / Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): Functional-organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76(2): 606-627.

Description

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Description

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Schindler, D.W. (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Description

Changing flows due to changing temperatures and precipitation. Changing aquatic community, life cycles. Warming trend: Habitats for cold-stenotherms decline.

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change / Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): Effects of climate warming on fish habitat in streams of the United States. Limnology and Oceanography 41(5): 1109-1115.

Description

Water temperature increase: Habitats for cold and cool water fish reduced by approx. 50%. Examples: Oncorhynchus mykiss, Catastomus commersoni.

Distribution range, habitat change / Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & J.F. Kitchell (1992): Global change and freshwater ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 119-139.

Description

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct

Reference

Description

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease / Xenopoulos, M.A., D.M. Lodge, J. Alcamo, M. M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease

Reference

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Cabral, H.N., M.J. Costa & J.P. Salgado ( ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Cabral, H.N., M.J. Costa & J.P. Salgado (2001): Does the Tagus estuary fish community reflect environmental changes? Climatic Research 18: 119-126.

Description

Water temperature: 1.2 to 1.3 °C higher in recent years. Decrease of Platichthys flesus, Ciliata mustela, Trisopterus luscus, Trigla lucerna; increase of Liza ramada, Halobatrachus didactylus, Diplodus bellottii, Sparus aurata, Agyrosomus regius.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Finstad, A.G., T. Forseth, T.F. Næsje & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Finstad, A.G., T. Forseth, T.F. Næsje & O. Ugedal (2004): The importance of ice cover for energy turnover in juvenile Atlantic salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology 73(5): 959-966.

Description

experiments showed lower metabolic costs in darkness under simulated ice cover than without ice. Under benign laboratory conditions the response to light (ice cover) varied among populations and only the northern population were able to attain positive growth in the dark. Under semi-natural conditions the lack of ice cover induced strong negative effects on the energy budget. Because energetic deficiencies are assumed to be an important cause of winter mortality, our study indicates that ice break-ups or removal following climatic change may affect winter survival significantly, particularly in northern populations.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R.C. Francis & V.N. Agostini (2004): Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61(3): 360-373.

Description

Annual air temperatures and second winter flows correlated strongly with smolt production from both stock units. Additional correlates for the Oregon Coast stocks were the date of first fall freshets and flow during smolt outmigration. Air temperature is correlated with sea surface temperature and timing of the spring transition so that good freshwater conditions are typically associated with good marine conditions.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & S.P. Sowa (2006): Riparian shading and groundwater enhance growth potential for smallmouth bass in Ozark streams. Ecological Applications 16(4): 1461-1473.

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease / Rivers-Moore, N.A., G.P.W. Jewitt & D.C. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease

Reference

Rivers-Moore, N.A., G.P.W. Jewitt & D.C. Weeks (2005): Derivation of quantitative management objectives for annual instream water temperature in the Sabie River using a biological index. Water SA 31(4):473-482.

Description

Water temperature increased; exceedance of treshold temperature (25 °C) from Chiloglanis anoterus, abundance, condition declined.

Secondary production - invertebrates

Community change: anoxiatolerant species / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: anoxiatolerant species

Reference

Description

Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Boulton, A.J. (2003): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Boulton, A.J. (2003): Parallels and contrasts in the effects of drought on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Freshwater Biology 48(7): 1173-1185.

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Monk, W.A., P.J. Wood, D.M. Hannah, D.A. Wils ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Monk, W.A., P.J. Wood, D.M. Hannah, D.A. Wilson, C.A. Extence & R.P. Chadd (2006): Flow variability and macroinvertebrate community response within riverine systems. River Research and Applications 22(5): 595-615.

Description

A west-east trend of flow regime magnitude (high-low) and timing (early-late peak) was displayed across the study area, reflecting climatic gradients and basin controls (e.g. lithology). From the suite of hydrological variables, those associated with the magnitude of the flow regime consistently produced the strongest relationships with macroinvertebrate community metrics for all sites and for the long-term regime composite classes.

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Robinson, C.T., G.W. Minshall & T.V. Roye ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Robinson, C.T., G.W. Minshall & T.V. Royer (2000): Inter-annual patterns in macroinvertebrate communities of wilderness streams in Idaho, USA. Hydrobiologia 421: 187-198.

Description

CVs for individual taxa were substantially greater than those of most community measures, with rare taxa contributing 30-50% of the variation for any one stream. Frequency distributions for taxa CVs excluding rare taxa were more normally distributed. Differences in assemblage structure among streams were attributed to stream size (shift in shredder assemblages) and temperature (shift in plecopteran taxa).

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Woodward, G., J.I. Jones & A.G. Hildrew ( ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Woodward, G., J.I. Jones & A.G. Hildrew (2002): Community persistence in Broadstone Stream (UK) over three decades. Freshwater Biology 47(8): 1419-1435.

Description

changes in the community appeared to be driven by an interaction between pH and climate. The unusually hot, dry summers characteristic of the 1990s may have raised pH during the more sensitive (i.e. early) stages of the life-cycle, and thus provided a window of opportunity for less acid-tolerant taxa to colonise and become established. Changes in pH appeared to set the boundaries of the available local species pool, within which biotic interactions ultimately shaped the community. (Despite a high persistence, a long-term response to rising pH was detected: species indicating profound acidity (identified a priori from independent studies) have declined since the 1970s, whereas indicators of moderate acidity increased. The structure of the community food web has also changed since the 1970s, with increased predator diversity and abundance, and a lengthening of food chains following the invasion of a new top predator).

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Verdonschot, P.F.M. (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Verdonschot, P.F.M. (2006):Climate Change: Blessing Or Catastrophe For Lowland Streams Biodiversity? Verhandlungen der Internationalen Vereinigung für theoretische und angewandte Limnologie 29(3): 1524-1528. (Euro-limpacs paper)

Description

Climate change affects the macro-invertebrate composition of streams in Europe, as was shown by the analysis of distribution data of macro-invertebrates over Europe. If climate change results in a rise of 4°C in the Netherlands and macro-invertebrates are able to disperse, especially the groups of Tricladida, Hydracarina, Plecoptera, Odonata, Coleoptera and Heteroptera will migrate north and the number of species will increase. On the other hand, the number of species of Orthocladiinae and Oligochaeta will decrease. These results were confirmed by a study of streams with different temperature regimes. The consequences of immigrants on ecosystem functioning are discussed.

Secondary production - invertebrates

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Verdonschot, P.F.M. (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Feld, C.K., Hering, D. (2007): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Feld, C.K., Hering, D. (2007): Community structure or function? Effects of environmental stress on benthic macroinvertebrates at different spatial scales. Freshwater Biology 52: 1380-1399.

Description

1. This study investigated the relation of benthic macroinvertebrates to environmental gradients in Central European lowland rivers. Taxonomic structure (taxa) and functional composition (metrics) were related to gradients at four different spatial scales (ecoregion, catchment, reach and site). The environmental variables at the catchment-, reach- and site scales reflected the intensity of human impact: catchment and floodplain land use, riparian and floodplain degradation, flow regulation and river bank and bed modification.
2. Field surveys and GIS yielded 130 parameters characterising the hydromorphology and land use of 75 river sections in Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland. Two hundred and forty-four macroinvertebrate taxa and 84 derived community metrics and biotic indices such as functional guilds, diversity and composition measures were included in the analysis.
3. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) showed that hydromorphological and land use variables explained 11.4%, 22.1% and 15.8% of the taxa variance at the catchment (""macro""), reach (""meso"") and site (""micro"") scales, respectively, compared with 14.9%, 33.2% and 21.5% of the variance associated with the derived metrics. Ecoregion and season accounted for 10.9% and 20.5% of the variance of the taxonomic structure and functional composition, respectively.
. Partial CCA (pCCA) and RDA (pRDA) showed that the unique variance explained was slightly higher for taxa than for metrics. By contrast, the joint variance explained for metrics was much higher at all spatial scales and largest at the reach scale. Environmental variables explained 46.8% of metric variance and 32.4% of taxonomic structure.
5. Canonical Correspondence Analysis and RDA identified clear environmental gradients along the two main ordination axes, namely, land use and hydromorphological degradation. The impact of catchment land use on benthic macroinvertebrates was mainly revealed by the proportion of urban areas. At the reach scale, riparian and floodplain attributes (bank fixation, riparian wooded vegetation, shading) and the proportion of large woody debris were strong predictors of the taxonomic structure and functional composition of benthic macroinvertebrates. At the site scale, artificial substrata indicated human impact, particularly the proportion of macro- and mesolithal used for bank enforcement (rip-rap).
6. Our study revealed the importance of benthic macroinvertebrate functional measures (functional guilds, composition and abundance measures, sensitivity and tolerance measures, diversity measures) for detecting the impact of hydromorphological stress at different spatial scales.

Secondary production - invertebrates

Life history characteristics change / Baron, J.S. (1997): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Baron, J.S. (1997): Effects of climate change on in-stream biology and freshwater ecosystems. Briefing document for Great Plains climate change workshop 5/97

Description

Water temperature increased i.e. caddiesflies growth rates change, shortened life cycles. Habitat loss, population fragmentation.

Life history characteristics change: food selection / Adams, J.A., N.C. Tuchman & P.A. Moore (2 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change: food selection

Reference

Description

Secondary production - invertebrates

Species distribution, richness, abundance change / Haidekker, A., Hering, D. (2008): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Species distribution, richness, abundance change

Reference

Haidekker, A., Hering, D. (2008): Relationship between benthic insects (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Coleoptera, Trichoptera) and temperature in small and medium-sized streams in Germany: A multivariate study. Aquatic Ecology 42 (3): 463-481.

Description

Benthic insect communities (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Coleoptera, Trichoptera) were studied together with water temperature and environmental parameters in streams between June 2000 and June 2001. The sampling area consisted of 20 sites in small and medium-sized streams located in the lower mountainous area of Central Europe. Temperature was recorded nearly continuously and several physicochemical and environmental variables were assessed. Macroinvertebrates were sampled both in spring and summer. Data-sets of species abundance and occurrence were analysed using multivariate techniques and were correlated to the thermal and environmental conditions of the streams. The temperature preferences of the species were compared to published data-sets on their autecological characteristics. Up to 29% of the variability in the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and Coleoptera community was explained by summer temperature variation in the data-sets for both small and medium-sized streams. A smaller, but significant part of the variability in species distribution was explained by conductivity, substratum type, and the percent coverage of local riparian forest. Compared to small streams, temperature was less important for the macroinvertebrate composition in medium-sized streams. This result is likely due to the more tolerant, eurythermic species composition in larger streams. A total of 33 Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Coleoptera and Trichoptera taxa were positively correlated and 28 taxa were negatively correlated to summer temperature patterns. The temperature preferences of taxa considered in this study were related to species traits, such as egg dormancies and life cycle plasticity.

Susceptibility ecosystem

Land use / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Description

Review (anthropogenic stressors) / Søndergaard, M., Jeppesen, E. (2007): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	rivers in general
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Review (anthropogenic stressors)

Reference

Søndergaard, M., Jeppesen, E. (2007): Editorial overview: anthroprogenic impacts on freshwater ecosystems and approaches to restoration. Journal of Applied Ecology 44: 1089-1094.

Description

Freshwater ecosystems have long been affected by numerous types of human interventions that have a negative impact on their water quality and ecological state. Fortunately, in most western countries the input of sewage to freshwater systems has been reduced, but hydromorphological alterations, eutrophication-related turbidity and loss of biodiversity remain major problems in many parts of the world. Such impacts prevent the achievement of a high or good ecological state, as defined by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) or other standards. This paper synthesizes and links the findings presented in the seven papers of this special profile, focusing on the effects of anthropogenic stressors on freshwater ecosystems and on how to maintain and restore ecological quality. The papers cover a broad range of research areas and methods, but are all centred on the relationship between dispersal barriers, the connectivity of waterways and the restoration of rivers and lakes. The construction of dams and reservoirs disturbs the natural functioning of many streams and rivers and shore-line development around lakes may reduce habitat complexity. New methods demonstrate how reservoirs may have a severe impact on the distribution and connectivity of fish populations, and new techniques illustrate the potential of using graph theory and connectivity models to illustrate the ecological implications. Hydromorphologically degraded rivers and streams can be restored by addition of wood debris, but "passive" restoration via natural wood recruitment may be preferable. The most cost-effective way to restore streams may also include information campaigns to farmers on best management practices. Removal of zooplanktivorous fish often has marked positive effects on trophic structure in lakes, but there is a tendency to return to turbid conditions after 8-10 years or less unless fish removal is repeated. Development of new methods, as well as derivation of more general conclusions from reviewing the effects of previous restoration efforts, are crucial to achieve progress in applied freshwater research. The papers contained in this Special Profile contribute on both counts, as well as illustrating the importance of well-designed research projects and monitoring programmes to record the effects of the interventions. Such efforts are vital if we are to improve our knowledge of freshwater systems and to elaborate the best and most cost-effective recommendations. They may also help in achieving a good ecological state or potential in water bodies by 2015, as demanded by the European WFD.

Large

Abiotic incidators

N-flux / Whitehead, P.G., Wilby, R.L., Butterfield, D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-flux

Reference

Whitehead, P.G., Wilby, R.L., Butterfield, D., Wade, A.J. (2006): Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies. Science of the Total Environment 365: 260-273.

Description

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1962-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change.

N-flux / Watmough, S.A., Eimers, M.C., Aherne, J., Dil ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic incidators
Indicator	N-flux

Reference

Watmough, S.A., Eimers, M.C., Aherne, J., Dillon, P.J. (2004): Climate effects on nitrate export from forested catchments in south central Ontario. Environmental Science & Technology 38: 2383-2388.

Description

Increased nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in streamwaters draining forested catchments are reportedly an early indicator of nitrogen (N) saturation. Nitrate concentrations in streams draining 16 forested catchments in south central Ontario were monitored over a 16-year period, during which time N bulk deposition was relatively constant (9 kg ha^-1 yr^-1). Mean annual NO₃ concentrations in streams were both highly variable among catchments and among years, although patterns of annual concentration were similar among many catchments. Coherence analysis identified two stream groupings. Shallow soils, moderate slopes, lowNO₃ concentration, and a large wetland component characterized the first group. The second group had primarily upland characteristics including deeper soils, steeper slopes, higher NO₃ concentrations, and a much smaller wetland component. Patterns in NO₃ concentration in wetland-influenced streams appeared to be related to summer drought and cumulative frost depth, whereas NO₃ concentrations in upland-draining streams appeared to be related to both mean annual air temperature and summer drought. Because a number of different climate parameters as well as the physical character of the catchments apparently influence NO₃ export, NO₃ concentrations in streams are not a good indicator of N saturation in this region.

Abiotic indicators

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio ( ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio (2002): Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6 (2): 197-209.

Description

Land use change: Crop growth starts earlier. Runoff: Increased surface flow (except one scenario). Mineralisation accelerated. N and P loads higher.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Varanou, E., E. Gkouvatsou, E. Baltas & M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Varanou, E., E. Gkouvatsou, E. Baltas & M. Mimikou (2002): Quantity and quality integrated catchment modelling under climate change with use of soil and water assessment tool model. Journal of Hydrology Enginee. 7(3): 228-244.

Description

Runoff: Decreasing. Increasing frequency of extreme events, e.g. floods (not all scenarios). Decreasing NO₃-N in runoff.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Mimikou, M.A., E. Baltas, E. Varanou, E. ∓ ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Mimikou, M.A., E. Baltas, E. Varanou, E. ∓ K. Pantazis (2000): Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators. Journal of Hydrology 234: 95-109.

Description

Runoff volume: Decreasing, particularly in summer. Oxygen: Increasing BOD. Eutrophication: Decreasing DON, increasing NH₄-N. Impairment of water quality, particularly in summer.

Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands) / Chang, H. (2004): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Eutrophication (decomposition, mineralisation, oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Chang, H. (2004): Water quality impacts of climate and land use changes in southeastern Pennsylvania. The Professional Geographer 56(2): 240-257.

Description

Increase in mean annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads (combined with urban growth).

Floodplain change / Kwadijk, J. & H. Middelkoop (1994): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Floodplain change

Reference

Kwadijk, J. & H. Middelkoop (1994): Estimation of impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability of the river Rhine. Climatic Change 27: 199-224.

Description

Floodplain change: Inundation frequency changes from +30 to -75; flood duration changes from 0,6 to 115 days; sedimentation frequency changes from +45 to -80%; sedimentation duration changes from 0,2 to 67 days - depending on scenario. Runoff danamics: Up to 10% decrease of peak discharge (for + 4 °C scenario); Up to 30% increase of peak discharge (for + 20% precipitaton scenario); Critical discharge with recurrence time of 1.250 years changes from -3.000 to + 1.500 m³/s.

Model: Acidification / Hardekopf, D.W., Horeck ý, J., Kopa ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Model: Acidification

Reference

Hardekopf, D.W., Horeck ý, J., Kopač,ek, J. & Stuchlik, E.(2008): Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Special Issue (Eurolimpacs) 12: 479-490.

Description

Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands) / Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. Schädler (1992): Repercussions of a CO₂ doubling on the water balance - a case study in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 137: 199-208.

Description

Abiotic indicators: Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands)
Early Warning Indicators: Hydrology: seasonality changed
Water temperature/extremes
Annual runoff volume unaltered, but higher from December to Februrary and lower from June to September. Increasing water temperature. Increasing pollution risks in summer owing to less dilution of waste water.
Susceptibility ecosystem - Land use: Increase in biomass and agricultural production but occasional diminuition of meadow and crop yields. Annual runoff volume unaltered, but higher from Dec to Feb and lower from June to September. Increasing water temperature. Increasing pollution risks in summer owing to less dilution of waste water.

Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands) / Bultot, F., A. Coppens, G.L. Dupriez, D. Gell ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Bultot, F., A. Coppens, G.L. Dupriez, D. Gellens & F. Meulenberghs (1988): Repercussions of a CO₂ doubling on the water cycle and on the water balance - a case study for Belgium. Journal of Hydrology 99: 319-347.

Description

Model (CO₂-doubling), land use change: Slight increase in biomass and agricultural production but occasional diminution of meadow and crop yields. Groundwater: High infiltration rate (sandy soil) leads to increasing storage. Low infiltration rate (rock bottom and clay layer): Increase in runoff and flood frequency predominantly in winter; decrease in summer; Increasing pollution risks in summer in case of low infiltration rate (clay layer), decreasing in case of high infiltration rate (sandy soil).

Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands) / Gellens, D. (1991): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Gellens, D. (1991): Impact of a CO₂-induced climatic change on river flow variability in three rivers in Belgium. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 16: 619-625.

Description

Model (CO₂-doubling). High infiltration rate (sandy soil) leads to increasing storage. Runoff volume: Increasing in winter. Runoff dynamics, flood frequency: increase in winter; decrease in summer when low infiltration rate (clay layer). Increasing pollution risks in summer in case of prevailing surface flow, decreasing in case of high infiltration rate.

Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands) / Bergström, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Pollution (oxidation, release wetlands)

Reference

Bergström, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M., Lindström, G., Pettersson, A. & M. Rummukainen (2001): Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Climate Research 16: 101-112.

Description

Model (for 2050 and 2100), runoff volume: High increases (in the north). Decreasing dominance of spring floods, higher low flows.

SO&sub4;- / NO&sub3;-flux / Rogora, M., Arese, C., Balestrini, R., Marche ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	SO&sub4;- / NO&sub3;-flux

Reference

Rogora, M., Arese, C., Balestrini, R., Marchetto, A.(2008): Climate control on sulphate and nitrate concentrations in alpine streams of Northern Italy along a nitrogen saturation gradient. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Special Issue (Eurolimpacs) 12: 371-381.

Description

The role of meteorology, hydrology and atmospheric deposition on the temporal pattern of SO₄ and NO₃ concentrations was investigated for three streams draining alpine catchments in Northern Italy. The study sites lie on a gradient of atmospheric fluxes of SO₄ and NO₃ (from about 50 to 80 meqm−2 y−1, and from 40 to 90meqm−2 y−1, respectively). As a consequence of the increasing N input, the three catchments are also representative of aggrading levels of N saturation. Different methods of statistical analysis were applied to monthly data for the period 1997-2005 to identify which variables (temperature, precipitation, hydrology, SO₄ and NO₃ deposition) were the main predictors of water chemistry and its change in time. Hydrological changes and snow cover proved to be the main confounding factors in the response to atmospheric deposition in the River Masino catchment. Its particular characteristics (small catchment area, rapid flushing during runoff and thin soil cover) meant that this site responded without a significant delay to SO₄ deposition decrease. It also showed a clear seasonal pattern of NO₃ concentration, in response to hydrology and biological uptake in the growing season. The selected driving variables failed to model the water chemistry at the other study sites. Nevertheless, temperature, especially extreme values, turned out to be important in both SO₄ and NO₃ export from the catchments. This result might be largely explained by the effect of warm periods on temperature-dependent processes such as mineralization, nitrification and S desorption. Our findings suggest that surface waters in the alpine area will be extremely sensitive to a climate warming scenario: higher temperatures and increasing frequency of drought could exacerbate the effects of high chronic N deposition.

SO₄-/NO₃-flux / Rogora, M., Arese, C., Balestrini, R., Marche ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	SO₄-/NO₃-flux

Reference

Description

The role of meteorology, hydrology and atmospheric deposition on the temporal pattern of SO₄ and NO₃ concentrations was investigated for three streams draining alpine catchments in Northern Italy. The study sites lie on a gradient of atmospheric fluxes of SO₄ and NO₃ (from about 50 to 80 meqm^-2y^-1, and from 40 to 90meqm^-2y^-1, respectively). As a consequence of the increasing N input, the three catchments are also representative of aggrading levels of N saturation. Different methods of statistical analysis were applied to monthly data for the period 1997?2005 to identify which variables (temperature, precipitation, hydrology, SO₄ and NO₃ deposition) were the main predictors of water chemistry and its change in time. Hydrological changes and snow cover proved to be the main confounding factors in the response to atmospheric deposition in the River Masino catchment. Its particular characteristics (small catchment area, rapid flushing during runoff and thin soil cover) meant that this site responded without a significant delay to SO₄ deposition decrease. It also showed a clear seasonal pattern of NO₃ concentration, in response to hydrology and biological uptake in the growing season. The selected driving variables failed to model the water chemistry at the other study sites. Nevertheless, temperature, especially extreme values, turned out to be important in both SO₄ and NO₃ export from the catchments. This result might be largely explained by the effect of warm periods on temperature-dependent processes such as mineralization, nitrification and S desorption. Our findings suggest that surface waters in the alpine area will be extremely sensitive to a climate warming scenario: higher temperatures and increasing frequency of drought could exacerbate the effects of high chronic N deposition.

Water temperature / Wilby, R.L., Whitehead, P.G., Wade, A.J., But ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Abiotic indicators
Indicator	Water temperature

Reference

Wilby, R.L., Whitehead, P.G., Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., Davis, R.J., Watts, G. (2006): Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. Journal of Hydrology 330: 204-220.

Description

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future low river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework.

Early warning indicators

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased / Bergström, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased

Reference

Description

Model (for 2050 and 2100), runoff volume: High increases (in the north). Decreasing dominance of spring floods, higher low flows.

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed / Middelkoop, H., K. Daamen, D. Gellens, W. Gra ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed

Reference

Middelkoop, H., K. Daamen, D. Gellens, W. Grabs, J.C.J. Kwadijk, H. Lang, B.W.A.H. Parmet, B. Schädler, J. Schulla & K. Wilke (2001): Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Climatic Change 49: 105-128.

Description

Model (for 2020, 2050 & 2100). Runoff volume and dynamics: Increase of winter runoff, decrease of summer runoff; Increase of frequency and height of floods as well as frequency and duration of summer low flows.

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed / Andréasson, J., S. Bergström, B. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed

Reference

Andréasson, J., S. Bergström, B. Carlsson, L.P. Graham & G. Lindström (2004): Hydrological change - climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio 33 (4-5): 228-234.

Description

Runoff: Predominantly decreased annual runoff volumes in southeastern, increased volumes in northern Sweden. Decreased spring flood peaks; decreased summer runoff in southern Sweden; Decreased frequency of high flow events during spring; increased autumn and winter runoff; increased frequency of high flow events during autumn.

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Bergström, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Description

Model (for 2050 and 2100), runoff volume: High increases (in the north). Decreasing dominance of spring floods, higher low flows.

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Varanou, E., E. Gkouvatsou, E. Baltas & M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Description

Runoff: Decreasing. Increasing frequency of extreme events, e.g. floods (not all scenarios). Decreasing NO₃-N in runoff.

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, seasonality changed / Gellens, D. (1991): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, seasonality changed

Reference

Gellens, D. (1991): Impact of a CO₂-induced climatic change on river flow variability in three rivers in Belgium. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 16: 619-625.

Description

Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, seasonality changed / Marsh, T.J. & F.J. Sanderson (1997): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: flooding events, extremes increased, seasonality changed

Reference

Marsh, T.J. & F.J. Sanderson (1997): A review of hydrological conditions throughout the period of the LOIS monitoring progamme - considered within the context of the recent UK climate volatility. Science of the Total Environment 194: 59-69.

Description

Monitored (1993 - 1997). Runoff volume and dynamics: Increase in winter, decrease in summer. Possibility of greater frequency of flood and drought interludes.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed / Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) and seasonality changed

Reference

Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology. 183: 397-424.

Description

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Arnell, N.W. (1992): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Arnell, N.W. (1992): Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment. Journal of Hydrology 132: 321-342.

Description

Model, runoff volume and dynamics: Response depending on catchment characteristics and timing of rainfall.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Mimikou, M.A., S.P. Kanellopoulou & E.A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Mimikou, M.A., S.P. Kanellopoulou & E.A. Baltas (1999): Human implication of changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change in northern Greece. Global Environmental Change 9: 139-156.

Description

Implementation of climate change scenarios for 2020 to 2100.The runoff volume would decrease predominantly in spring. This and a slight increase in winter would lead to a prolongation of the dry period and a shifting of the wet period towards december.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio ( ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio (2002): Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6 (2): 197-209.

Description

Land use change: Crop growth starts earlier. Runoff: Increased surface flow (except one scenario). Mineralisation accelerated. N and P loads higher.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Menzel, L. & G. Bürger (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Menzel, L. & G. Bürger (2002): Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). Journal of Hydrology 267: 53-64.

Description

Application of the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Results indicate a reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years accompanied by an increase in temperature. This leads to a decreasing runnoff and a reduced peak discharge.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Mimikou, M.A., E. Baltas, E. Varanou, E. ∓ ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Mimikou, M.A., E. Baltas, E. Varanou, E. ∓ K. Pantazis (2000): Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators. Journal of Hydrology 234: 95-109.

Description

Runoff volume: Decreasing, particularly in summer. Oxygen: Increasing BOD. Eutrophication: Decreasing DON, increasing NH₄-N. Impairment of water quality, particularly in summer.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Kwadijk, J. & J. Rotmans (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Kwadijk, J. & J. Rotmans (1995): The impact of climate change on the river Rhine: a scenario study. Climatic Change 30: 397-425.

Description

Runoff: Minor annual discharge changes with all scenarios. General trend towards decreasing summer discharge (partly due to increasing evapo-transpiration) and increasing winter discharge, most pronounced in alpine part; Probable increase in adherence of high and low flows in the Netherlands.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. & N.R. Dalezio ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. & N.R. Dalezios (2002): Climatic impacts on the runoff generation processes in British Columbia, Canada. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6(2): 211-227

Description

Groundwater: Illecillewaet: doubled generation of runoff by outflow of groundwater (due to higher infiltration rate); Upper Campbell: increased generation of runoff by outflow of groundwater. Runoff: Illecillewaet: 37% increase of annual runoff; 21% decrease of annual runoff from rainfall (due to higher permeability of soil); increase of annual runoff from snowmelt and glacier; Upper Campbell: 13% increase of annual runoff; 30% increase of annual runoff from rainfall; 83% decrease of annual runoff from snowmelt. Runoff dynamics: Illecillewaet: increase of autumn, winter and early spring runoff; decrease of summer runoff; Upper Campbell: increase of late autumn and winter runoff; decrease of summer runoff.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed / Nash, L.L. & P.H. Gleick (1991): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed

Reference

Nash, L.L. & P.H. Gleick (1991): Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado Basin to climate changes. Journal of Hydrobiology 125: 221-241.

Description

Decrease in mean annual runoff by 4-12% (second scenario: 9-12%C). Seasonal changes in peak runoff.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, flooding events, extremes increased / Vehviläinen, B. & J. Lohvansuu (1991 ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, flooding events, extremes increased

Reference

Vehviläinen, B. & J. Lohvansuu (1991): The effects of climate change on discharges and snow cover in Finland. Hydrological Sciences Journal 36(2): 109-121.

Description

Model (CO₂-doubling). Runoff volume: Increase of MQ, predominantly in winter. Runoff dynamics, extremes: Decrease of spring high flows; decrease of maximum discharges and MHQ; increase of MNQ.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, flooding events, extremes increased / Gellens, D. & E. Roulin (1998): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, flooding events, extremes increased

Reference

Gellens, D. & E. Roulin (1998): Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 210: 242-258.

Description

Model (CO₂-doubling). Runoff volume: Changes depending on scenario. Runoff dynamics: Increase in flood frequency in winter (in case of low infiltration rate). Baseflow, surfaceflow: Changes depending on scenario.

Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, seasonality changed / Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: runoff (MNQ, MHQ) changed, seasonality changed

Reference

Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. Spreafico (1994): Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (Switzerland). Climatic Change 28: 339-363.

Description

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Bultot, F., A. Coppens, G.L. Dupriez, D. Gell ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Description

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Panagoulia, D. (1992): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Panagoulia, D. (1992): Impacts of GISS-modelled climate changes on catchment hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal 37: 141-162.

Description

Three climatic scenarios using GISS and NWSRFS project decreases in average snow accumulations and in spring and summer runoff and soil moisture. Furthermore an increase in winter runoff and spring evaporation and soil moisture storage.

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Mimikou, M.A., Y. Kouvopoulos, G. Cavadias &a ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Mimikou, M.A., Y. Kouvopoulos, G. Cavadias & N. Vayianos (1991): Regional hydrological effects of climate change. Journal of Hydrology 123: 119-146.

Description

Modelling future climatic scenarios regarding regional hydrological effects and spatial and temporal redistribution of the regional water resources by using data of the central mountainous region in Greece. The results show an increase in runoff volume in winter and a decrease particularly in summer.

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Graham, L.P. (2004): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Graham, L.P. (2004): Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33(4-5): 235-241.

Description

Runoff: Increased flows from northern basins, decreased flows form southern basins to the Baltic Sea. Increased winter flows, reduced summer flows; no pronounced increase in magnitude of high flow events, more frequent medium to high flow events.

Hydrology: seasonality changed / Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed

Reference

Johnson, S.L. & H.G. Stefan (2006): Indicators of climate warming in Minnesota: Lake ice covers and snowmelt runoff. Climatic Change 75(4): 421-453.

Description

Hydrology: seasonality changed, water temperature/extremes / Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Early warning indicators
Indicator	Hydrology: seasonality changed, water temperature/extremes

Reference

Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. Schädler (1992): Repercussions of a CO₂ doubling on the water balance - a case study in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 137: 199-208.

Description

Primary production

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Description

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Hudon, C. (2004): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Hudon, C. (2004): Shift in wetland plant composition and biomass following low-level episodes in the St. Lawrence River: looking into the future. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61(4): 603-617.

Description

Low water levels altered wetland vegetation: various Graminea (including Phalaris arundinacea and Phragmites australis) and facultative annual species invaded previously marshy areas. Submerged species previously found in shallow waters were replaced on dry ground by annual terrestrial plants; Alisma gramineum colonized emergent waterlogged mudflats. The low water levels of 1999 induced a spatially discontinuous plant biomass that was richer in terrestrial material than in previous years (1993-1994). In comparison with the 1930s, recent surveys indicate a decline of assemblages dominated by Equisetum spp. and Najas flexilis and a rise of those dominated by Lythrum salicaria, Potamogeton spp., and filamentous algae. These shifts reveal the additional effects of nutrient enrichment, alien species, and shoreline alteration accompanying a change from a mostly agricultural to a mostly urbanized and industrialized landscape.

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Nilsson, C., S.J. Xiong, M.E. Johansson & L.B.M. Vought (1999): Effects of leaf-litter accumulation on riparian plant diversity across Europe. Ecology 80(5): 1770-1775.

Description

Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian) / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Diversity, community, distribution change (submersed and riparian)

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Neophytes / Schmitz, U. (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Neophytes

Reference

Schmitz, U. (2006): Increase of alien and C-4 plant species in annual river bank vegetation of the River Rhine. Phytocoenologia 36(3): 393-402.

Description

Distinct increase in the proportion of alien and C, plant species: The mean percentage of post-1492 aliens (neophytes) increased from 9.9% in 1964 to 27.5% in 2002. In the same period, the mean percentage of C-4 plants increased from 4.4% to 11.5%. In 1998 - 2002 99 alien plant species were recorded in the annual sand and gravel bank vegetation of the study area. Possible reasons for the increase of alien and C, plants may include increased trade activities and increased temperatures due to global climate change.

Neophytes / Truscott, A.M., S.C.F. Palmer, C. Soulsby &am ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Neophytes

Reference

Description

Productivty, decomposition / Wade, A.J., P.G. Whitehead, G.M. Hornberger & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Primary production
Indicator	Productivty, decomposition

Reference

Wade, A.J., P.G. Whitehead, G.M. Hornberger & D.L. Snook (2002): On modelling the flow controls on macrophyte and epiphyte dynamics in a lowland permeable catchment: the River Kennet, southern England. Science of the Total Environment 282: 375-393.

Description

Extended low-flow periods: changes in the seasonal distribution of flow were not detrimental to macrophyte growth. Proliferation of epiphytic algae occurs, even when the in-stream phosphorus concentrations are reduced due to effluent treatment. This epiphytic growth was predicted to reduce the macrophyte peak biomass within the reach by approximately 80%. Thus, the model simulations suggest that flow was more important in controlling the macrophyte biomass in the River Kennet, than the in-stream phosphorus concentrations, which are elevated due to agricultural diffuse sources.

Secondary production - fish

Abundance: Increase warm-water taxa/southern species, productivity, density, species richness, survival, community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Daufresne, M., M.C. Roger, H. Capra & N. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Abundance: Increase warm-water taxa/southern species, productivity, density, species richness, survival, community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Daufresne, M., M.C. Roger, H. Capra & N. Lamouroux (2004): Long-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the upper Rhône river: effects of climatic factors. Global Change Biology 10: 124-140.

Description

The analysis of long-term series of fish and invertebrate data showed that fewer cold water taxa and more warm water taxa appear, also fewer northern taxa are displaced by more southern taxa. Warm summers lead to higher reproductivity with smaller eggs, meanwhile fish productivity increases (at high temperature and low flow).

Assemblage structure / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Assemblage structure / Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Assemblage structure

Reference

Poff, N.L. & J.D. Allan (1995): Functional-organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76(2): 606-627.

Description

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Description

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms / Schindler, D.W. (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms

Reference

Description

Changing flows due to changing temperatures and precipitation. Changing aquatic community, life cycles. Warming trend: Habitats for cold-stenotherms decline.

Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change / Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Community change: decrease cold stenotherms, distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Eaton, J.G. & R.M. Scheller (1996): Effects of climate warming on fish habitat in streams of the United States. Limnology and Oceanography 41(5): 1109-1115.

Description

Water temperature increase: Habitats for cold and cool water fish reduced by approx. 50%. Examples: Oncorhynchus mykiss, Catastomus commersoni.

Distribution range, habitat change / Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Carpenter, S.R., S.G. Fisher, N.B. Grimm & J.F. Kitchell (1992): Global change and freshwater ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 119-139.

Description

Distribution range, habitat change / Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Bu ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Description

Distribution range, habitat change, life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing / Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins & R. Dudl ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change, life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing

Reference

Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins & R. Dudley (2003): Historical Trend in River Ice Thickness and Coherence in Hydroclimatological Trends in Maine. Climatic Change 61: 217-236.

Description

Distribution range, habitat change, productivity, density, species richness, survival / Ries, R.D. & S.A. Perry (1995): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Distribution range, habitat change, productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Ries, R.D. & S.A. Perry (1995): Potential effects of global climate warming on brook trout growth and prey consumption in central Appalachian streams, USA. Climate Research 5(3): 197-206.

Description

Hydrology: temperature, waterflow seasonal and diurnal pattern, change the habitat by salmon and trout / Heggenes, J. & J.G. Dokk (2001): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Hydrology: temperature, waterflow seasonal and diurnal pattern, change the habitat by salmon and trout

Reference

Heggenes, J. & J.G. Dokk (2001): Contrasting temperatures, waterflows, and light: Seasonal habitat selection by young atlantic salmon and brown trout in a boreonemoral river. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management 17(6): 623-635.

Description

Variability in temperature, runoff, and light: observation of 396 salmon and 120 trout. Brown trout: slow-flowing habitat types, Atlantic salmon: fast flowing habitat. Variation in temperature and runoff volume: habitat change by salmon and trout. Selection of the habitat by salmon and trout depending on season and light.

Life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing / Salinger, D.H. & J.J. Anderson (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Life-history: migration timing, spawning, emergence timing

Reference

Salinger, D.H. & J.J. Anderson (2006): Effects of water temperature and flow on adult salmon migration swim speed and delay. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 135(1): 188-199.

Description

For Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss 16 to 17°C is the thermal optimum (unimodal function of T) for maximum swim speed and minimum migration delay.

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct

Reference

Description

Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease / Xenopoulos, M.A., D.M. Lodge, J. Alcamo, M. M ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Non native invasives; native rare species extinct, species change, extinction (floods), thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease

Reference

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Boylan, P. & C.E. Adams (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Boylan, P. & C.E. Adams (2006): The influence of broad scale climatic phenomena on long term trends in Atlantic salmon population size: an example from the River Foyle, Ireland. Journal of Fish Biology 68(1): 276-283.

Description

The probability of catches of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar exceeding the long-term median was 2.34 times lower in years where the wNAOI was above the 0.151. Models of climate change indicated that the NAOI is likely to increase significantly with time. Firstly that the value of the NAOI as a predictive tool for forecasting adult Atlantic salmon population size will be limited and secondly that the median population size will become lower in the future.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Crozier, L. & R. W. Zabel (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Crozier, L. & R. W. Zabel (2006): Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology 75(5): 1100-1109.

Description

Chinook salmon Onchorynchus tshawytscha: Survival in two of the clusters was negatively correlated with summer temperature, and survival in the other two clusters was positively correlated with minimum fall stream flow, which in turn depends on snow pack from the previous winter. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified stream width and stream temperature as key habitat factors that shape the responses of individual populations to climate. Climate change will likely have different impacts on different populations within this metapopulation, and recognizing this diversity is important for accurately assessing risks.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Swansburg, E., G. Chaput, D. Moore, D. Caissi ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Swansburg, E., G. Chaput, D. Moore, D. Caissie & N. El-Jabi (2002): Size variability of juvenile Atlantic salmon: links to environmental conditions. Journal of Fish Biology 61(3): 661-683.

Description

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar: Fork lengths of parr were significantly and negatively associated with spring air and water temperatures. In the Miramichi River, increases in air and water temperature as predicted from climate change models may adversely affect growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon parr, reducing the overall productivity of the Atlantic salmon populations in this region. (Environmental conditions in the current bear of growth have the more significant effects on size of age 2 year parr than conditions encountered the previous year by age 1 year parr of the same cohort).

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Swansburg, E., N. El-Jabi, Caissie, D. & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Swansburg, E., N. El-Jabi, Caissie, D. & G. Chaput (2004): Hydrometeorological trends in the Miramichi river, Canada: Implications for Atlantic salmon growth. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 24(2): 561-576.

Description

Increased spring air temperatures and water temperatures were significantly associated with smaller sizes in Atlantic salmon parr (age 2). Changes in discharge and precipitation were also significantly associated with the size of juvenile Atlantic salmon. Future climate-change scenarios: productivity of Atlantic salmon populations in this region will likely be adversely affected.

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Whitledge, G.W., C.F. Rabeni, G. Annis & S.P. Sowa (2006): Riparian shading and groundwater enhance growth potential for smallmouth bass in Ozark streams. Ecological Applications 16(4): 1461-1473.

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Description

Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease, distribution range, habitat change / Hari, R.E., D.M. Livingstone, R. Siber, P. Bu ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - fish
Indicator	Productivity, density, species richness, survival, thermal stress: deseases increase -> population decrease, distribution range, habitat change

Reference

Description

Water temperature increase: brown trout upward migration, incidence of Proliferative Kidney Disease increased, populations decrease (catch declined by 66,4%).

Secondary production - invertebrates

Community change: anoxiatolerant species / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: anoxiatolerant species

Reference

Description

Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Hauer, F.R., J.S. Baron, D.H. Campbell, K.D. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: Species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Lake, P.S., M.A. Palmer, P. Biro, J. Cole, A. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Boulton, A.J. (2003): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Boulton, A.J. (2003): Parallels and contrasts in the effects of drought on stream macroinvertebrate assemblages. Freshwater Biology 48(7): 1173-1185.

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Hawkins, C.P., J.N. Hogue, L.M. Decker & ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Description

Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure. / Heino, J. (2002): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Community change: species richness, diversity, assemblage structure.

Reference

Heino, J. (2002): Concordance of species richness patterns among multiple freshwater taxa: a regional perspective. Biodiversity and Conservation 11(1): 137-147.

Description

Life history characteristics change / Baron, J.S. (1997): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Baron, J.S. (1997): Effects of climate change on in-stream biology and freshwater ecosystems. Briefing document for Great Plains climate change workshop 5/97

Description

Water temperature increased i.e. caddiesflies growth rates change, shortened life cycles. Habitat loss, population fragmentation.

Life history characteristics change / Briers, R.A., Gee, J.H.R. & R. Geoghegan ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Secondary production - invertebrates
Indicator	Life history characteristics change

Reference

Briers, R.A., Gee, J.H.R. & R. Geoghegan (2004): Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insects. Ecography 27: 811-817.

Description

Susceptibility ecosystem

Catchment size, other characteristics / Arnell, N.W. (1992): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Catchment size, other characteristics

Reference

Arnell, N.W. (1992): Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment. Journal of Hydrology 132: 321-342.

Description

Model, runoff volume and dynamics: Response depending on catchment characteristics and timing of rainfall.

Catchment size, other characteristics / Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Catchment size, other characteristics

Reference

Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler B. & M. Spreafico (1994): Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (Switzerland). Climatic Change 28: 339-363.

Description

Geography / Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geography

Reference

Arnell, N.W. & N.S. Reynard (1996): The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology. 183: 397-424.

Description

Geography / Andréasson, J., S. Bergström, B. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geography

Reference

Andréasson, J., S. Bergström, B. Carlsson, L.P. Graham & G. Lindström (2004): Hydrological change - climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio 33 (4-5): 228-234.

Description

Geography / Graham, L.P. (2004): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geography

Reference

Graham, L.P. (2004): Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 33(4-5): 235-241.

Description

Geology, groundwater / Gellens, D. & E. Roulin (1998): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geology, groundwater

Reference

Gellens, D. & E. Roulin (1998): Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 210: 242-258.

Description

Geology, groundwater / Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. & N.R. Dalezio ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geology, groundwater

Reference

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. & N.R. Dalezios (2002): Climatic impacts on the runoff generation processes in British Columbia, Canada. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6(2): 211-227

Description

Geology, groundwater, catchment size, other characteristics / Gellens, D. (1991): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geology, groundwater, catchment size, other characteristics

Reference

Gellens, D. (1991): Impact of a CO₂-induced climatic change on river flow variability in three rivers in Belgium. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 16: 619-625.

Description

Geology, groundwater, land use / Bultot, F., A. Coppens, G.L. Dupriez, D. Gell ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Geology, groundwater, land use

Reference

Description

Land use / Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Bultot, F., D. Gellens, M. Spreafico & B. Schädler (1992): Repercussions of a CO₂ doubling on the water balance - a case study in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 137: 199-208.

Description

Land use / Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio ( ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Bouraoui, F., L. Galbiati & G. Bidoglio (2002): Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6 (2): 197-209.

Description

Land use change: Crop growth starts earlier. Runoff: Increased surface flow (except one scenario). Mineralisation accelerated. N and P loads higher.

Land use / Reynard, N.S., Prudhomme, C. & S.M. Crook ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Reynard, N.S., Prudhomme, C. & S.M. Crooks (2001): The flood characteristics of large U.K. rivers: potential effects of changing climate and land use. Climatic Change 48: 343-359.

Description

Land use change: Increased urbanisation increases flood frequency; increased afforestation is able to offset the effects of climate change. Runoff dynamics: Increase in magnitude and frequency of flooding by up to 20% of a given return period.

Land use / Hudon, C. (2004): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Description

Land use / Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): ...

Climate Region	temperate
Ecosystem type	large
Parameter group	Susceptibility ecosystem
Indicator	Land use

Reference

Xenopoulos, M.A. & D.M. Lodge (2006): Going with the flow: Using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87(8): 1907-1914.

Freshwater type.

Rivers in temperate ecoregions

– Case studies –

Small

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description

Reference

Description